IR tricks that make theory stick

No world government → states must fend for themselves. Alliances are temporary convenience. War is always possible. Explains arms races and balance-of-power politics.

Democratic Peace Theory: democracies rarely fight each other. International institutions (UN, WTO) enable cooperation. Economic interdependence raises cost of war.

Hard power: military force and economic sanctions. Soft power: cultural attraction, diplomacy, values (Hollywood, universities, brands). Smart power combines both strategically.

32 members. Article 5 has been invoked once — after 9/11. Deterrence through collective security. Expansion eastward since Cold War has been a major source of geopolitical tension.

States' interests aren't fixed by material factors — they're shaped by ideas, norms, and identities. Anarchy means what states make of it (Wendt). Explains norm changes like abolition of slavery and human rights regimes.

Core realist mechanism. When one state grows too powerful, others balance against it through internal balancing (build up military) or external balancing (form alliances). Bandwagoning: weaker states join the rising power instead. Polarity: unipolar (one hegemon, post-Cold War), bipolar (Cold War), multipolar (19th century Europe).

Intergovernmental organizations (IGOs): created by states, membership by states. UN: collective security (Security Council veto), international law, humanitarian missions. WTO: trade rules, dispute resolution. NATO: collective defense. Limitations: no world government, enforcement depends on state compliance and great power consensus.

Economic globalization: trade, foreign direct investment, global supply chains. Financial globalization: capital flows across borders instantly. Cultural globalization: spread of ideas, values, media. Winners: consumers (cheaper goods), skilled workers in emerging markets. Losers: low-skilled workers in developed countries competing with cheap labor.

MAD: if both sides have second-strike capability (can absorb a first strike and retaliate), nuclear war becomes irrational. Cold War: US and USSR never fought directly despite intense rivalry. Deterrence works when: adversary is rational, retaliatory capability is credible and survivable. Extended deterrence: umbrella covers allies.

Empirical finding: liberal democracies almost never fight each other. Explanations: institutional (democracies need public support for war), normative (democracies resolve disputes peacefully because they share norms), commercial (democracies trade heavily with each other — war is costly). Not that democracies are peaceful in general.

Traditional: state sovereignty is absolute — other states cannot interfere in internal affairs. R2P (Responsibility to Protect, 2005): sovereignty includes responsibility to protect citizens. If state fails, international community has duty to intervene. Kosovo (1999), Libya (2011): invoked R2P. Syria: R2P not applied — Security Council vetoes.

Security dilemma: one state's defensive buildup looks offensive to others → they build up → first state feels less secure → builds more. Spiral model. Classic example: WWI — mobilization plans locked in war no one wanted. Solutions: arms control agreements, transparency measures, CBMs (confidence-building measures).

System level (third image): anarchic system forces competition — structure causes war regardless of state type. State level (second image): domestic politics, regime type, economic interests drive foreign policy — democratic peace theory. Individual level (first image): leader psychology, misperception, miscalculation cause war — Hitler and Stalin as causes of WWII.

Deterrence: if attacking guarantees your own destruction, rational actors won't attack. Requires survivable second-strike capability (submarines, dispersed missiles), credible commitment to retaliate, and rational adversaries. Extended deterrence: US nuclear umbrella covers NATO allies. Counterforce weapons threaten second-strike capability — destabilizing.

UN: collective security, peacekeeping, international law — Security Council with P5 veto. WTO: trade rules and dispute settlement. IMF: balance of payments support and conditionality loans. World Bank: development lending. NATO: collective defense, Article 5. EU: supranational integration — single market, common currency, law supersedes member state law.

Hard power: military force and economic coercion or incentives. Soft power (Nye): culture, values, legitimate foreign policy — others want what you want. Examples: US Hollywood and universities, BBC, Korean Wave (Hallyu). Smart power: combining both strategically. Sharp power: authoritarian information manipulation — distinct from soft power.