Election tricks that make systems click

538 total (House + Senate + 3 DC). 270 needed to win. 48 states: winner-take-all. Maine and Nebraska award by congressional district. Critics: small states and swing states over-represented.

In plurality (winner-take-all) elections, voters abandon third parties (wasted vote) and they collapse. Proportional representation → more parties. UK/USA = two-party; Germany/Netherlands = multi-party.

Name recognition, franking privilege (free mail), easier fundraising, ability to deliver constituent services, and gerrymandering all favor incumbents.

Education level: strongest predictor. Registration requirements reduce turnout (unique to US). Competitive races increase turnout. Age: older voters turn out more. Race and income also correlate strongly.

Packing: concentrate opposition voters in a few districts (they win big there, wasted votes). Cracking: spread opposition voters thinly across many districts (they lose everywhere). Named after Governor Elbridge Gerry (1812).

Plurality (FPTP): candidate with most votes wins — tends to produce two parties (Duverger's Law). Proportional representation: seats allocated by vote share — more parties, better minority representation. Ranked-choice voting: voters rank candidates, instant runoff eliminates last-place finisher. Mixed: combines elements (Germany).

Citizens United v FEC (2010): political spending by corporations and associations is protected free speech — cannot be limited. Super PACs: can raise and spend unlimited money but cannot coordinate with campaigns. Dark money: 501(c)(4) nonprofits spend on elections without disclosing donors. Hard money: direct contributions to candidates — limited.

Primary agents: family (strongest predictor of party identification), school (civic education), peers, media, religion. Party identification: often adopts parents' party. Generational effect: political coming-of-age during significant events shapes lifetime views (Great Depression → Democrat, Reagan era → Republican). Life-cycle effects: people become more conservative with age.

Congressional voting records: Republicans and Democrats rarely overlap ideologically — used to overlap substantially. Causes: geographic sorting, primary elections selecting extreme candidates, media fragmentation (partisan media), negative partisanship (voting against the other party more than for your own). Consequences: gridlock, declining bipartisanship.

Random sample: every person has equal chance of being selected — the only valid method. Sampling error: ±3% margin of error at 95% confidence for n=1,000. Question wording effects: small changes dramatically alter responses. Response bias: people give socially acceptable answers. Likely voter screen: likely voters differ from registered voters.

Party identification: psychological attachment to a party — most stable political attitude. Dealignment: growing share of voters identify as independent (now ~40%). Realignment: critical elections shift party coalitions. 1932: New Deal coalition. 1968: Southern realignment (Solid South became Republican). 1994: Republican Revolution.

Downs: rational parties maximize votes by moving toward the median voter's position. If voters distributed along a left-right spectrum, both parties converge to the middle. Why it fails: primary elections reward extreme positions, base mobilization matters more in low-turnout elections, party activists are ideologically extreme.

538 total electors (435 House + 100 Senate + 3 DC via 23rd Amendment). Need 270 to win. Most states use winner-take-all. Maine and Nebraska use congressional district method. If no majority, the House chooses the president with each state delegation getting one vote. Faithless electors: SCOTUS upheld state penalties (2020).

15th (1870): cannot deny vote based on race — but poll taxes and literacy tests circumvented it for decades. 19th (1920): women's suffrage after decades of activism. 24th (1964): abolished poll taxes in federal elections. 26th (1971): voting age to 18 — "old enough to fight, old enough to vote." Voting Rights Act (1965): banned discriminatory practices.

Citizens United: corporations and unions can spend unlimited on independent expenditures — led to Super PACs. Hard money: direct donations to candidates — capped by FEC. Super PACs: raise and spend unlimited but cannot coordinate directly with campaigns. Dark money: 501(c)(4) nonprofits spend politically without disclosing donors.

Packing: concentrate opponents into as few districts as possible — they win big but waste votes. Cracking: spread opponents thin across many districts — they lose narrowly everywhere. Racial gerrymandering: unconstitutional if race is predominant factor (Shaw v. Reno). Partisan gerrymandering: federal courts cannot police it (Rucho v. Common Cause, 2019).